Spinning the numbers

Posted by helen at 8:16 AM

Interesting to see how the grad-rate report is presented by local media. Facts are facts, but how they're spun reflects how they're seen.

For starters, the Post notes the upward trend -- but sets the NYC data against even greater apparent progress in long-troubled cities like Chicago and Los Angeles. The Sun describes "an uptick" in state and city scores (and a brief moment of mayoral pique), while the Daily News, incredibly, says "the gap between black and white students closed" -- somehow overlooking the 21 percentage points that separate both groups' graduation rates. The Times' headlines the on-time graduation of "most" city students, for the biggest "hunh?" moment of the morning's news. No argument, 52% is more -- but most? Could a student who scored a 52 on a 100-point exam celebrate getting "most" of the questions right? (Would you accept that, as a parent? The DOE doesn't think twice about calling a 52 a failure on a Regents exam.)

The mind reels, as do the perceptions of readers, decision-makers, and parents citywide.

Grad rates at last: Inching up, with caveats

Posted by helen at 4:40 PM

The State and the City finally released the 2007 high school graduation rate today, and the news is both heartening and discouraging, on more than a few counts.

First, the good news: The overall graduation rate continues to nudge upward from the swamp where it had long languished. For the city as a whole, 52.2% of students who started high school in 2003 (the 2003 cohort) graduated in four years. Another 3.6% graduated in August, via credit recovery and other recuperative programs (mention of which flummoxed the Mayor briefly at a press conference today). If this seems lower than the 60% that was so widely celebrated last year, it is -- in years past, the city included GED-earners in the grad rate, unlike the State's more stringent criteria, which the city now shares.

More Asian and white students continue to earn diplomas than their African-American and Hispanic classmates (bad news) but the gap between the races is narrowing -- slightly (good news, but not that good): Nearly 71% and nearly 69% of Asian and white students graduate in four years; only 43% of Hispanic kids earn their diploma in the same time, as do just over 47% of African-American students. So while it's true that grad rates are rising for African-American and Hispanic kids, it will be a long, long time before the academic playing field is even approximately equal. And demographics notwithstanding, boys continue to lag behind girls in academic achievement. But back on the good-news side, New York leads the state's biggest cities in academic gains. On the bad-news side, the cities still lag well behind the state's overall grad rate of 79.2%.

Less enthusiastic results were posted for English Language Learners, who Chancellor Klein identifies as "our greatest challenge." ELL grad rates dropped in recent years and now have risen three points, to 23.5% for four-year grads and 32.4% for kids who stay in high school for five years (no typo on those stats). Students with disabilities showed slight change in their graduation rate (from 19.4% in 2006 to 19.1% in 2007. Good news, no drop; bad news, scant improvement.

The general tenor of the announcement this afternoon was celebratory but clear-eyed; the Mayor, sporting a spectacular tan, praised all involved, from Klein (also summer-bronzed) and Weingarten down into the academic trenches -- teachers, principals, APs, parents, and of course the students, especially the kids who stick with high school into a fifth or sixth year. "That they didn't do it in four years is immaterial," said the Mayor, who added that staying longer in high school is "demonstrative of someone who wants to take charge of their life," and graciously crediting Jennifer Medina's Times story today as proof.

Still, Bloomberg acknowledged, "despite this heartwarming progress," there's "enormous room for improvement." Notably, 38% of students don't graduate in four years, and nearly 14% drop out. "It's going to be very hard to get them back," he said. (About 10% stay enrolled in high school beyond four years.) The dropout rate contracted slightly since last year, from 15% to 14.7%; we're waiting for follow-up from the DOE on students who were discharged from school -- and don't show up in DOE records as students or dropouts.

Students now in high school can earn one of three diplomas -- local, Regents, or Advanced Regents. About two-thirds of NYC grads earn a Regents diploma, which is good news -- but not so good for the third who get less-rigorous Local credentials, and moot entirely for the kids starting high school next month, who are not eligible to earn the local diploma at all. We've asked the DOE for diploma and grad-rate details on the new small high schools and Career and Technical Education schools, and for more specific demographic and gender information -- and we'll report back whenever we hear more.

Let us know if you have questions; the State published a thick deck of data slides, and we'll post links to specifics if there's interest.


Update: A correction for clarity: The overall state graduation rate cited above, of 79.2%, reflects the grad rate for schools outside the state's five biggest cities, and not the state as a whole. Regrets for any confusion.

Report cards, grad rates, AWOL as usual

Posted by helen at 9:25 AM

Just over two weeks ago, we asked -- and not for the first time -- about high-school graduation rates and school report cards. (The Times asked, too, but didn't get a clear answer.) The New York State Department of Education said in May that they would release the data by the end of June; nothing doing. In July, they said the data would post by the end of July. It's the 30th. Anyone here think we're going into August without knowing how schools did, and whether more kids are graduating than in years previous?

School report cards help parents (and professionals, like principals and teachers) learn more about schools by reporting detailed ("granular") data on enrollment, testing, teacher qualifications and more. The grad rate is the education acid test -- how many kids finish high school is a pretty effective yardstick, and the one against which Bloomberg and Klein measure their success.

The city and state disagreed for years on how to define and count high-school grads. This year, they've reached agreement on who qualifies as a graduate (excluding GED completers, for example). High schools rise and fall on grad rates and other accountability data; don't parents -- the taxpayers who support the schools -- deserve timely reporting on how the city's students are doing? The state and the city's DOE owe the accountability they cite as a foundation of responsible, progressive school reform to the people who pay their salaries.

Bloomberg, Klein to school House panel

Posted by helen at 9:45 AM

Quiet week in NYC? Head down to D.C.: Tomorrow morning, Mayor Bloomberg and Schools Chancellor Joel Klein will address a House panel on progress in urban education, along with D.C. Mayor Adrian M. Fenty, Klein protegee D.C. Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee and public school leaders from Chicago and Atlanta.

We bet we'll hear about test score gains and closing the achievement gap -- but we doubt the conversation will include troubling nuances, like the fact that race-based gaps between brighter kids widen over time, even as they narrow for kids with lower skills. And we bet we won't hear the nitty-gritty on why level 4 test scores have dropped for middle schoolers this year: Will anyone ask about the price bright students pay in a system so focused on raising low-level student skills?

We'll likely hear about charter schools and merit pay, about leadership pipelines and increasing accountability. We'll hear about rising grad rates -- but bet the numbers they cite will be based on old data, as the newly calibrated scores are yet to be made public.

Will we learn anything new? We doubt it, but we'd love to be wrong. As it stands now, though, our bet is on celebration over substance, and photo-ops over hard questions.

Big Picture: Two New Initiatives

Posted by helen at 8:12 AM

This week marks the launch of two new initiatives that share strikingly similar aims -- improving school outcomes for high-need urban kids.

The first report, produced by a superstar task force at the Economic Policy Institute, aims to address shortfalls of NCLB's test-driven strictures by turning attention to the whole child, especially the socioeconomically challenged. Schools have long stood in loco parentis, despite mixed feelings and lean resources; this project endorses stronger engagement and a bigger investment in children's development (social, emotional, academic, everything) from the earliest years. It's a stance that's hard to argue, and reminds some of Geoffrey Canada's groundbreaking Harlem Childrens Zone.

The second, headed by the unlikely alliance of Chancellor Joel Klein and Brooklyn's own Rev. Al Sharpton, the Educational Equality Project, was announced yesterday in Washington, DC. (A roster of notable participants include Newark mayor Cory Booker and DC Schools Chief Michelle Rhee.)

This effort reframes the guaranteed right to public education as the pressing civil rights issue of the 21st century -- a point made even sharper in the context of vastly different graduation rates for urban students of color, compared with white and Asian peers: Although grad-rate gaps are narrowing slightly, about half of all African-American and Hispanic high school boys in New York City won't graduate.

The end of the school year is always a time for taking stock and planning for the future. Executing those plans, and achieving lofty goals dearly held, is the challenge that awaits.